Reconstruction

Avoiding corruption

“War is merely the continuation of policy with other means” – Clausewitz.  Thus there is a long way to go with Russia’s war against Ukraine.  Russia will aim to drag this war on until at least the US Presidential elections in 2024 to see who wins and gauge any withdrawal of support for Ukraine.

Ukraine will want to try and win the war prior to any US election for the same reason.

“War is thus an act of force to compel our enemy to do our will” – Clausewitz (again).  This war, whether we like it or not, is fought against the backdrop of political timeframes, both internal and external.  Political will may well change or soften.

It maybe Ukraine will win the war by the end of 2023 given the right military equipment and intelligence sharing on a scale that Russia simply can’t cope with.  It seems Ukrainian allies are just about waking up to that fact en masse. 

The argument of not doing so before now is perhaps that doing everything at once would have been a logistical and training impossibility for Ukraine to cope with.  It may be that incremental movement always left room for escalation after Kremlin outrages – namely always having a military/economic ability to respond to yet more war crimes.  It may also be that certain capitals are still a little fearful of The Kremlin and in doing so draw their own red lines.  Indeed it would seem that the Ukrainian allies are often prisoners to their own red lines rather than any explicitly or implicitly projected by The Kremlin.

Further, it has to be acknowledged that when the war actually ends, it won’t end.  Russia’s war will continue by other means for decades even when the war crimes cease. 

Whoever replaces Putin will be someone the siloviki can unite behind.  At this moment in time, it would be a fair bet that Dmitri Patrushev would be in the running.  He has a cushy job as Minister for Agriculture which is very difficult to get wrong, his daddy Nikolai Patrushev, as Secretary of the Security Council of Russia is well placed to line the siloviki up behind his son, and Dmitri can be trusted to keep the outgoing elite out of harm’s way.  A fair bet that this face of the new generation will continue the policies of the old guard and also ensure that they remain untouched by any ill-winds whatever direction they may blow from.  Whatever the case, whoever takes up the reigns will be of the same ilk as Dmitri Patrushev.

Nevertheless, the kinetic war will end at some point, leaving Ukraine to be rebuilt and that will lead to the next war Ukraine has to fight just as robustly as the war Russia has heaped upon it – corruption.

Ukraine has all the legislation and enforcement bodies to do this effectively and has had them for years.  Where it has failed is the selected application of enforcement as opposed to the processes being universally applied without fear or favour.

How then, can Ukrainian allies be sure that the $750 billion (and rising) costs of rebuilding Ukraine won’t vanish into offshore accounts or unreasonably enrich corrupt officials?

Perhaps one of the better ways would be to remove the political class from the reconstruction as far as it is practicable.  Perhaps something akin to a “Major Contractor Group” comprising of companies with experience of delivering massive projects could be formed, give them the projects and the funding for the projects, and allow them to use Ukrainian and foreign subcontractors to deliver wherever possible.

This way the politicians are excluded for the most part when it comes to tenders and delivery. 

The Ukrainian industry and labour are used to the maximum extent under the sub-contracts issued and monitored by the Major Contractor Group, who in turn are subject to their own domestic bribery legislation, for example The Bribery Act 2010 for any UK major contractor involved, and who are subject to their own domestic rule of law when it comes to corruption in an effort to keep them on the straight and narrow and also make every effort that any funds they are allocated for any major project are auditable for the political class and public.

The question is whether the threat of being held accountable under domestic anti-corruption legislation for major projects managed in Ukraine would have sufficient financial reward for those within a Major Contractor Group to the point where making sure that a clear and robust audit trail is worth their risk.

Still, it’s something to ponder when it comes to the reconstruction issues that lay ahead.